As veteran political scientist Ghia Nodia says, “The issue is not that Ivanishvili is pro-Russian, is it that he was Russian.” In other words, the mentality of Georgian Dream’s leader was formed in Russia and Georgia’s ruling elite plays by Russian business-some would say mafia-rules, not those of Europe. Ivanishvili is a deeply enigmatic figure who made his money in Russia in the 1990s, and then got out, and also promoted Georgia’s association agreement with the EU in 2014. Inevitably, there is speculation that Bidzina Ivanishvili, the mercurial former prime minister, founder of Georgian Dream-and Georgia’s wealthiest man-is doing a deal with the Kremlin. How far will this dance with Russia go and what’s behind it? Since the resumption of direct air traffic to Russia, Georgia has become a new conduit for Russians to reach destinations such as Nice via a new flight from Tbilisi. Despite allowing in tens of thousands of ordinary Russians in, his government has mysteriously banned the entry of high-profile critics of Vladimir Putin’s regime. He accuses those who ask Georgia to support Ukraine more strongly of being a “ party of war” and says that restricting trade with Russia would “ destroy Georgia’s economy.” But Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili seems pathologically afraid of mentioning the words Ukraine, Zelensky, or Putin. It complies with the Western sanctions regime on Moscow-with some caveats that apply to its neighbors, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye. In collective international resolutions at the United Nations and elsewhere, Tbilisi condemns Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. A new strategic partnership agreement with China worries Western capitals, but what exactly the Georgian leadership is up to with Russia is the main source of alarm. This while the ruling party doubles down on illiberal policies, extending their political control of the judiciary and even the country’s acclaimed cultural institutions. Instead of sweating to meet the EU’s priorities, Georgian officials flatly declare that they are already entitled to accession. Public levels of support for the EU remain extremely high.īut the slide away from democracy is alarming. It’s not so long since Georgia was talked of as the frontrunner of the six Eastern Partnership countries-and on many technical criteria it is still closer to the EU than Moldova or Ukraine. That would put the country on the same level as Moldova and Ukraine, the two other members of the so-called Association Trio which were given a clear path to accession talks last year. By the end of 2023 the European Union will have to decide whether Georgia has addressed the twelve key priorities set out last year to qualify for EU candidate status.
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